Has the Bitcoin halving myth collapsed? It has become "the worst in history".

According to the crypto research company Kaiko, the most recent halving, which completed its first year, (block reward halving) developed differently from previous ones and was the weakest halving in history in terms of price performance.

The company stated in its assessment regarding the issue, "Bitcoin has generally recorded a strong increase within 12 months after previous halvings. After the halving in 2012, there was an extraordinary increase of about 7,000 percent. The increases in the halvings of 2016 and 2020 were 291 percent and 541 percent respectively. However, the 2024 cycle has so far lagged behind this trend."

The halving effect was dampened by macroeconomic uncertainty

Kaiko, highlighting that this subdued performance coincided with increasing macroeconomic uncertainties, pointed out the trend of the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. Stating that this index averaged 317 for six months following the last halving, Kaiko said, "In previous halving periods, this average was recorded as 107 in 2012, 109 in 2016, and 186 in 2020."

The report emphasized that the clarity of regulations regarding digital assets in the US could reduce uncertainty and potentially strengthen investor confidence in the coming months.

Published: April 26, 2025 17:29